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Amid increasingly tense global geopolitical dynamics, pressure on the world economy continues to intensify. The conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has not only affected the surrounding regions but has also spread across various countries, including Indonesia. In this situation, vigilance and anticipatory measures are essential to maintaining national economic stability.
According to Prof. Ir. Carunia Mulya Firdausy, M.ADE., Ph.D., a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB) of Universitas Tarumanagara (Untar), although Indonesia’s dependence on fuel imports through the Strait of Hormuz is relatively lower compared to countries such as South Korea, Japan, China, and India, Indonesia cannot afford to remain passive. The closure of strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz would still disrupt global energy supply chains, including Indonesia’s fuel suppliers such as Singapore, Malaysia, India, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
The economist further explained that the impact would not be limited to rising energy prices alone but could also trigger various forms of inflation, including administered price inflation, import inflation, cost inflation, and expected inflation. Without proper anticipation, these pressures could affect sources of economic growth from both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, as well as other economic sectors. Such conditions also have the potential to disrupt financial markets, exchange rates, and the real sector, while hindering Indonesia’s 5.4 percent economic growth target for 2026.
In the short term, several strategic measures can be taken by the government. These include reviewing the assumptions of the 2026 State Budget (APBN), restructuring and improving efficiency in state spending, particularly on programs that do not provide short-term productivity leverage such as the National Capital City (IKN), National Strategic Projects (PSN), and the Free Nutritious Meals Program (MBG). In addition, monetary policies must remain non-inflationary, measured, and avoid creating negative pressure on exchange rates. The government also needs to eliminate various distortions in the real sector while expanding opportunities for the growth of the gig economy.
On the other hand, younger generations also play an important role in facing this situation. One concrete step that can be taken is prioritizing domestic products and reducing dependence on imported goods. Reducing mobility based on fuel-powered private vehicles can also contribute to lowering energy consumption.
The utilization of digital technology has become an important strategy for maintaining income stability, especially amid potential inflationary pressures. In addition, strengthening entrepreneurial spirit is necessary so that young people can remain economically resilient, even during times of crisis. Activities such as gardening and livestock farming can also serve as alternatives to maintaining household food security. Equally important is building a sense of crisis awareness so that younger generations become more adaptive to global changes.
Furthermore, current global pressures not only have the potential to trigger inflation but may also impact the labor market. Indonesia’s employment structure, which still reflects a dual economy consisting of formal and informal sectors as well as urban and rural areas, makes certain groups more vulnerable to inflationary effects. The informal sector, particularly in rural areas, tends to be more exposed due to limited protection, high sensitivity to rising costs, and restricted access to financing. Meanwhile, the formal sector also faces pressure from increasing production costs.
These conditions may ultimately affect unemployment levels and job creation. Therefore, structural reforms in the labor sector are becoming increasingly urgent, including improving the quality of education and skills that align with labor market demands.
Prof. Carunia also emphasized that future challenges require fresh graduates to prepare beyond academic capabilities alone. “Additional competencies that can differentiate graduates amid increasingly intense competition are necessary. These skills must be relevant to industry needs and the development of the digital era,” he stated.
In this regard, the roles of the government and industry sectors are crucial in helping universities prepare graduates who meet future workforce demands. Ultimately, responding to global uncertainty is not solely the government’s responsibility, but also that of all elements of society. Fast, rational, and measured responses are key to maintaining national economic stability amid continuously evolving global pressures. (VC/YS)